Poor Ralph Nader has about as much chance of winning the election as Chick Fil-A has of overtaking McDonald’s, and yet, this may be his year to earn more votes than any other time he ran for president, with polls placing him at 3% nationally, compared to .5% in 2004. In 2000 and 2004, the Democratic party tried to shake Nader off of the campaign trail, but Mr. Ivy League Iconoclast gave them the old F-U as hysterical Dems bloviated, “A vote for Nader is a vote for Bush.”

This time around though, the democratic candidate has not asked Nader to leave the race, unlike John Kerry in 2004. Perhaps it’s karma then that’s creating what Newsday is calling the Nader Effect: in some battleground states Nader is not gleaning votes from those who might’ve voted for Obama, instead gaining votes from McCain.

Newsday reports:

Eight years ago Democrats had good reason to blame Ralph Nader for peeling off enough votes from Al Gore to cost him Florida and the presidency. But this year Democrats may have good reason to welcome the so-called Nader effect.

 

According to recent CNN/Opinion Research polls, Barack Obama leads John McCain by four points in a two-way choice among likely Florida voters. That gap grows to eight points with Nader in the mix, along with other minor-party candidates such as Libertarian Bob Barr…

Who are the voters whom Nader siphons from McCain? Kevin Hill, an associate professor of political science at Florida International University, says Nader's populist rhetoric appeals to white working-class voters who lean conservative. "It's probably more of a protest than anything else," he says. McCain aides argue that Nader's poll ratings are too low to be significant.

Obviously, Nader’s numbers aren’t too small to be insignificant, given the Florida example. They say the first stage of grieving is denial though, so perhaps the McCainsters are just beginning to grieve over the republican’s impending loss.