Projected Obama-style playoff based on predicted outcomes... 

With president-elect Barack Obama jumping into the dialogue on college football, it certainly has led to a whirlwind of “what-if” scenarios at this point in this exciting season (if Michigan State is ranked in the BCS... it truly IS exciting!). We can lead off this conversation with the obvious: it's outstanding for a President to share his passion of sports and an appreciation for the college game. Notably, earlier in his campaign for the most powerful office in the world, Obama hit a home run with Joe Six-Pack because he was busy “having a beer and watching the Redskins.”  Mind you, Obama is more than just an armchair athlete, as YouTube videos have shown his basketball prowess.

Let us dig a bit deeper into the college football playoff, as proposed by the President-elect on 60 Minutes. He commented that “any serious fan of college football agrees that we need to have an 8-team playoff, and maybe to reduce the number of regular season games.” We will not dive into a discussion today about the merits and viability of the Obama proposal (playoff revenue will:  go back into commercialization; devalue an already waning amateurism (or look here); lead to more sports info/marketing; further exploitation of athletes for entertainment ; enhance Dan Wetzel’s blinders and lack of perspective; further move football away from other college sports; boost the hypocrisy that is the NCAA and football; etc.). It is, however, always fun to play the what-if scenarios. That said, with respect to the Commander-In-Chief-elect, the top six teams would qualify for Obamaball Playoff by winning the conference title; the other two would be the next two highest ranked by some poll (that in and of itself is endless controversy).

Playing Out The Obamaball Playoff Proposal

If you played out Obamaball – as of today – it likely may not be any different result than the current BCS structure and regular season games. It is easy to see that the Big Least and the ACC don’t belong in this scenario this year (discussed below).. however, if Obamaball is to be viable and accepted, they will have to play politics. They need the blessing of all the BCS tie-ins, including the Big Least and ACC. Note that the Mountain West (#8 Utah, #16 BYU), Big West (#9 Boise State), and MAC (#14 Ball State) would be left out... but since they are currently out of the BCS and are essentially powerless in the current NCAA structure, they won’t have much say to stop it.

Quarterfinals
Game 1:
1 – SEC champs (#1 Alabama, #3 Florida)
8 – ACC champs (#22 Maryland, #23 Miami-Florida)

Game 2:
4 – SEC at large (#1 Alabama, #3 Florida)
5 – Big 10 champs (#7 PSU, #10 Ohio State, #15 Michigan State)

Game 3:
2 – Big 12 champs (#2 Texas Tech, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Texas, #12 Missouri)
7 – Big Least champs (#19 Cincinnati, #20 Pittsburgh)

Game 4:
3 – Pac 10 champs (#6 USC, #21 Oregon State)
6 – Big 12 at large (#2 Texas Tech, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Texas, #12 Missouri)

Semifinals
Game 5: Game #1 winner vs Game #2 winner (likely: SEC title rematch)
Game 6: Game #3 winner vs Game #4 winner (likely: Big 12 champs vs USC* or Big 12 title rematch)

Finals
Game 7: Game #5 winner vs Game #6 winner (likely: SEC vs Big 12)

Playing out the BCS Title Game:

Look at the current schedule and the top 6 teams, and potential records (including W for a projected win, L for a projected loss, ? for either) heading into bowl season.

#1 Alabama vs Auburn (W) and Florida (?) = 12-1 or 13-0
#2 Texas Tech vs Oklahoma (?), Baylor (W), Missouri** (?)= 11-1, 12-1, 11-2 or 13-0
#3 Florida vs Citadel (W), Florida St (W), and Alabama (?)= 11-2 or 12-1
#4 Texas vs Tex A&M (W), Missouri** (?) = 11-2, 12-1
#5 Oklahoma vs Texas Tech (?), Oklahoma St (?), Missouri** (?) = 12-1, 11-2, 10-2, or 9-3
#6 USC* vs Notre Dame (W), UCLA (W) = 11-1

* As is now, for USC to move up 4 spots to move into a national title game, they need some or all of the following: Oregon State to lose; Auburn upset of Alabama; a Florida St upset of Florida; for the Oklahoma/Texas Tech winner to lose in the Big 12 title game; Oklahoma to lose to Oklahoma State; or Texas to lose in the Big 12 title game (if Oklahoma, Texas Tech don’t advance).

That’s a lot of ifs.

** Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma all have a chance to play Missouri in the Big 12 title game at this point, and it is completely up for grabs. Yes, the Big 12 is FUN right now.

The Bottom Line: Obamaball won’t make a difference this year

Regardless of how things play out... what you are left with is a scenario that, in all honesty, would likely lead to a SEC vs Big 12 BCS title game. In all honesty, when you break this down, Oklahoma has the toughest stretch to remain in the hunt.

In Obamaball, with 2 SEC teams and 3 Big 12 teams in the top 5, you could bank on 2 at-large bids in Obamaball again from the SEC and Big 12... leaving USC out if Oregon State runs the table. Yes, in both the current BCS scenario and Obamaball, USC will likely be the odd man out.  You can also thank tie-ins to weak ACC and Big Least champions (both weaker than USC) as another reason why the Trojans would get the push.

Conclusion:

There will likely be no controversy this year with the BCS. At this point, for both the BCS and Obamaball scenarios, you can fairly bank on a Big 12 vs SEC in the BCS title game. For relevance, Obamaball may have to wait around another year -- not to mention find a way to break up the ESPN-BCS contract through 2014.