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Call off the campaigning, stop the fundraising and forget the lies-filled advertising. None of it matters since Obama is going to win the election anyway.
Or so says Alan Abramovitz.
The political science professor at Emory University uses a mathematical formula to predict the outcome of the election. The equation revolves around the Gross Domestic Product, the current president’s approval rating and the “time for change” factor based on how long a party has been in office.
Abramovitz explains the change factor to My Fox Atlanta:
"So right now we have a Republican party that has held the White House for eight years and usually it's much more difficult to retain the White House after eight years than one turn. Voters are reluctant to throw the president out after four years," said Abramowitz.
All of these factors together apparently spell out victory for Obama. If nothing else, Barack should be pleased. Abramowitz has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote for the past five elections.The only discrepancy occurred in 2000. Abramovitz put Al Gore in the win column, but his equation has one teeny, tiny glitch... it can only predict the popular vote, not so much for electoral votes. So Gore got the shaft and Abramovitz failed.
The odds of the electoral vote contradicting the popular vote, though, are slim. So, Barack, you better start planning your acceptance speech now. Sorry, McCain Palin... try again in four years.







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